Chandigarh: The estimated wheat yield for the 2025–26 season reflects a period of fluctuation for Punjab’s agricultural sector, with figures compiled by the state agriculture department indicating a decline compared to the previous two years. While the state average yield rose from 5,170 kg/hac in 2023–24 to 5,382 kg/hac in 2024–25, it is estimated to have reached 5,062 kg/hac for the 2025–26 season.According to experts, the decline in wheat yield was not merely a result of the 2025 floods. While the floods left the soil depleted in many areas during the Rabi sowing cycle, the crop then faced an aggressive heat spike during its critical pollination stage in February 2026. Farmers—already struggling to recover from the loss of their previous paddy crop—found a reprieve in a early-March drop in temperature, which prevented collapse of the wheat harvest.The district-level estimates provided by the Punjab agriculture department also reflected a downward trend in the yield for 2025–26 in the flood-impacted regions. This fluctuation is attributed to a combination of climatic stressors and the lingering effects of the monsoon floods that occurred in August and September 2025. Although wheat is a rabi crop sown after these floods, the disaster resulted in the deposition of silt and debris across significant areas of farmland, which hindered timely sowing and compromised soil quality. Additionally, unusually high temperatures during February 2026 exposed the crop to significant heat stress, which shortened the grain-filling duration and negatively impacted yield potential.“Even in Jalandhar, the farmers had to be content with a yield of 17 quintals per acre, which was less than their expected yield of 20-21 quintals per acre,” said an official of the agriculture department.Experts, however, highlight that despite these adverse conditions, the overall agricultural sector has demonstrated resilience, navigating the challenges to ensure continued production. Punjab led the country in wheat procurement for the 2026 season, with a total purchase of approximately 121 to 123 lakh metric tonnes (LMT). It was a slight increase from the 119 LMT recorded in the previous season.The impact on wheat yield is visible in regions hardest hit by the deluge, where soil damage disrupted farming cycles. In Amritsar, for example, yields are estimated to have fallen from 5,450 kg/hac in 2024–25 to 4,802 kg/hac in 2025–26, while Gurdaspur—a district significantly affected by the flooding—has seen a projected decline from 5,078 kg/hac to 4,822 kg/hac. Similarly, Fazilka’s output is expected to have ropped from 5,197 kg/hac to 4,834 kg/hac, and Kapurthala’s from 5,369 kg/hac to 4,919 kg/hac.During the floods last year, all 23 districts in Punjab were impacted, with over 1.76 lakh hectares of farmland submerged. The floodwaters left behind thick deposits of silt and sand—in some locations ranging from 1 to 3 feet in depth—which severely compromised soil health and necessitated extensive land rehabilitation, such as de-silting and levelling, before wheat sowing could even begin.The figures for 2023-24 are based on crop cutting experiments and those for 2024-25 and 2025-26 are from GCES (General Crop Estimation Survey) of the department of agriculture and farmers’ welfare, Government of India.
