Lucknow: India’s longstanding nuclear strategy is facing growing pressure from China’s expanding nuclear arsenal, advanced missile technology and India’s increasing reliance on nuclear-powered submarines, according to a research paper by a Lucknow University professor.The study, titled India’s Nuclear Posture Under Stress: The Future of Recessed Deterrence, authored by Ashutosh Singh, assistant professor in the department of western history at Lucknow University, has been published in the 2026 edition of the Journal of World Affairs: Voice of the Global South.The paper examines whether India can continue its traditional policy of keeping nuclear warheads and their delivery systems separately stored during peacetime while ensuring an effective response to a nuclear attack.This arrangement, known as “recessed deterrence”, reduces the risk of accidental nuclear launches but requires additional time to prepare weapons for retaliation.Citing estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Singh notes that India’s nuclear stockpile increased from approximately 150 warheads in 2020 to 190 in 2026. SIPRI also estimates that India may have begun deploying 12 nuclear warheads aboard a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine during occasional patrols.The study argues that China’s expanding nuclear capabilities, sophisticated surveillance systems and precision-guided missiles have made India’s traditional approach increasingly difficult to sustain.Singh explains that nuclear-armed submarines offer India a crucial advantage because they can remain hidden underwater and retaliate even after an enemy’s initial nuclear strike.However, maintaining nuclear weapons aboard operational submarines requires greater readiness, secure communication systems and changes in traditional command arrangements.The research also examines Pakistan’s battlefield nuclear weapons and the changing military environment following Operation Sindoor in 2025.Despite these developments, Singh finds no convincing evidence that India has abandoned its declared “no first-use” policy, under which nuclear weapons would not be used first.Instead, the paper concludes that India is gradually adopting a more operationally prepared nuclear force while retaining its longstanding commitment to nuclear restraint.The central finding is that India’s nuclear doctrine remains unchanged, but the manner in which it maintains nuclear deterrence is evolving to meet emerging security challenges.
