Bengaluru: Major political parties and candidates are taking stock of what the final electoral roll could mean for their prospects, especially since it has shrunk from 5.54 crore before the special intensive revision (SIR) to 4.55 crore voters.The worry is rooted in thin margins. In 2023, a dozen of the 224 assembly seats were decided by fewer than 2,000 votes, eight of them by fewer than 1,000, ADR and Karnataka Election Watch data shows.BJP’s CK Ramamurthy won Jayanagar by 16 votes, Congress’s Dinesh Gundu Rao took Gandhinagar by 105 and TD Rajegowda held Sringeri by 201. Only 153 seats were won by more than 10,000 votes. These contests show why even small changes in the electorate matter to candidates.Bengaluru is where anxiety could be greatest. Its four urban districts account for about 45% of deletions despite holding roughly 19% of the pre-SIR electorate. Ahead of Greater Bengaluru Authority polls, parties are expected to revisit booth-level databases and campaign plans. The revised roll also has over 6.83 lakh voters aged 18 and 19, a pool parties will court.Political analyst Harish Ramaswamy said while the exercise has been widely criticised as favouring one party, neither side can be sure who gains or loses. “It will probably affect all of them equally,” he said. If minorities have been excluded, it could hurt Congress and JD(S), he said, while a tilt towards OBCs may help BJP. “Since the identity of those removed is not clear, it will harm democracy and contesting parties alike.”Analyst Ravindra Reshme said the final list is a wake-up call, although the deletions may not greatly alter parties’ prospects. He said governing Congress has a bigger task in urban areas. “It has to go an extra mile to win over urban voters, especially the educated middle-class who have just reflected their preference for Modi-led NDA in MLC elections,” he said, adding that chief minister DK Shivakumar must turn his attention to rural Karnataka too.“Congress, which sought further physical verification, sees a campaign plank in voting rights,” Reshme said. “But it will need to document specific cases of exclusion and help eligible voters re-enroll. BJP has defended the revision as a clean-up of irregularities and must counter allegations of wrongful exclusion.”He said panchayat polls in early 2027 will test local networks and the 2028 assembly election will show whether changes matter. “The 2029 Lok Sabha polls will force parties to rebuild databases,” Reshme said. “Nearly one crore fewer names do not mean one crore votes lost by a party. Constituency-wise deletions, additions, turnout and voter preferences will decide.”For both, the outcome depends on what the deletions turn out to be. Psephologist Sandeep Shastri said it would depend on “how many are genuine deletions and how swiftly wrongful deletions are remedied”. “Earlier too the roll had errors, with people who should not be there being there. Swiftness and transparency in the review are critical,” he said.Re-enrolment is the immediate test. Chief electoral officer V Anbukkumar has said registration is continuous and eligible citizens can apply for inclusion after the final roll. “Booth-level officers will compare old and final lists and reach out to excluded voters,” he said.
