Bengaluru: Karnataka is on the brink of one of its biggest political transitions in decades, with the state preparing for a future beyond Siddaramaiah, HD Deve Gowda and BS Yediyurappa — three representatives who shaped state politics for over two decades.The transition is no longer only about who becomes the next CM. Political observers say the larger question is who will command the emotional trust and statewide acceptance once enjoyed by these towering functionaries. Analysts believe the state is now facing the long-term consequences of personality-driven, caste-centric and family-oriented politics, which failed to create an equally powerful second line of leadership.Ironically, the foundations for this shift were laid nearly 25 years ago after the Janata Parivar split into JD(S) and JD(U).“The split gradually converted Karnataka’s politics into a direct contest between dominant social blocs, largely Vokkaligas and Lingayats,” said Venkatesh Thogarighatta, political analyst and consultant.The divide deepened in 2006 when HD Kumaraswamy refused to transfer authority to Yediyurappa leading to the collapse of the BJP-JD(S) govt. “The incident consolidated Lingayats behind Yediyurappa while strengthening Vokkaligas around the Gowda family. Thereafter, politics increasingly revolved around community identity rather than ideology,” Venkatesh said.However, Siddaramaiah built a parallel socio-political coalition through Ahinda — minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Over time, he transformed backward caste identity into a statewide political movement and emerged as Karnataka’s most influential Kuruba leader. He too eventually evolved beyond ideology and became a political identity for backward classes, much like former chief minister D Devaraj Urs in an earlier era.However, Karnataka’s political transition has also exposed the absence of equally influential successors within these communities. Among backward classes, functionaries like KS Eshwarappa and H Vishwanath never evolved into statewide mobilisers.Lingayats and Vokkaligas too face a similar gap. After Yediyurappa stepped away from electoral politics, no Lingayat has demonstrated comparable emotional connect and organisational authority.Within the Vokkaliga community too, the political space continues to be shaped by the legacy of Gowda and JD(S), despite KPCC president DK Shivakumar steadily expanding his influence.“If Shivakumar fulfils the aspirations of the community which JD(S) failed to do in the past two decades, Vokkaligas may rally around him for years,” Venkatesh said.Observers argue seniors also failed to nurture successors within their own communities. “While Gowda steadily drifted away from his ideological roots and transformed JD(S) into a family-centric party, Yediyurappa openly encouraged dynastic politics by passing the baton to his son BY Vijayendra. Siddaramaiah too failed to nurture a credible second line of leadership within Ahinda communities,” said Prof Ravindra Reshme, political observer.Reshme said the growing culture of “parivarvad” gradually weakened the internal leadership pipeline across parties and communities and Karnataka may now enter an extended political phase dominated by coalition-building, caste arithmetic, welfare populism and factional negotiations.
