Bengaluru: After witnessing a surplus-rainfall year in 2025, Karnataka now appears to be heading towards a potential drought, with India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, raising serious concerns over the state’s water security. Following months of relentless heat and rapidly depleting reservoirs, IMD’s latest long-range forecast for the June-Sept period indicates that the situation could worsen, with monsoon rainfall likely to fall short of the seasonal average.As per IMD’s forecast issued Wednesday, India is expected to receive around 92% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall this monsoon, placing it in the ‘below normal’ category. However, the outlook for Karnataka is more concerning, with seasonal monsoon rainfall in the state likely to be below normal, coupled with palpable warning signs across the state in the form of sizzling temperatures.Given the forecast of below-normal monsoon rain, weather experts have cautioned that a deficit monsoon could aggravate the unfolding water crisis in both Bengaluru and other districts of Karnataka. “Bengaluru, which relies heavily on a combination of Cauvery river water and groundwater recharged by seasonal rainfall, might witness a repeat of the 2024-25 summer scenario. This will also affect inflows into key reservoirs that support irrigation and power generation,” explained a scientist from the University of Agricultural Sciences.The agriculture sector is expected to bear the brunt of the potential shortfall in monsoon rains, particularly in the rain-fed regions of North Interior Karnataka. A delayed onset or uneven distribution of rainfall could affect sowing cycles for major crops such as paddy, maize, pulses, and oilseeds. Farmers may be forced to either delay sowing or shift to less water-intensive crops, potentially impacting yields and incomes. Even though rainfall is expected to be relatively better in South Interior Karnataka, it may offer only limited respite and not enough to offset the overall deficit across the state. IMD’s probability forecast of Southwest Monsoon Climatological DivisionsForecast for Monsoon 2026(June-Sept)Climatological Normal Rainfall 1971-2020(June-Sept)Coastal KarnatakaBelow Normal3094.0 mmNorth Interior KarnatakaBelow Normal to Near Normal480.8 mmSouth Interior KarnatakaBelow Normal678.5 mm
