In 2019, 17 Karnataka MLAs – 14 from the Congress and 3 from the JD(S) – resigned from the assembly, bringing down the then HD Kumaraswamy government. The resignations paved the way for BJP’s Yediyurappa to take over as state’s chief minister.Interestingly, in this change of guard the resignations were the key, not defections that normally disrupt governments. The anti-defection law, a constitutional safeguard against floor-crossing by MLAs, had no answer for this political maoeuvre. After all, you cannot disqualify a legislator who is no longer one.
Seven years later, we may see a similar political manoeuvre in Tamil Nadu – where people voted for actor-politician Vijay to end the DMK-AIDMK duopoly, but did not give him the complete numbers.
Vijay’s number test
Tamil Nadu voted to elect a new assembly on April 23. When the results were out on May 4, the people’s verdict was unlike anything the state had ever seen since 1967. For the first time in nearly six decades, neither the DMK nor the AIADMK, the two Dravidian parties that have taken turns to rule the state, came anywhere close to forming the government. The DMK won 59 while the AIADMK was reduced to 47. Actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, a party barely two years old and contesting its first elections, won 108 seats in the 234-member assembly.Clearly, the verdict was for Vijay, but not enough to take him smoothly to the chief minister’s chair.Vijay was left 11 short of the magic number of 118 (the majority mark) needed to form a governmet on his own. Since Vijay had contested and won from two seats, his TVK’s actual strength was 107. What followed was a frantic week of dealmaking. The Congress, with five seats, was the first to come on board making an abrupt end to its 11-year-old alliance with the DMK. Two more parties – the CPM and the CPI – with two seats each, also announced outside support to Vijay. But the TVK chief was still short of majority. Vijay also got the support of lone Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) MLA S Kamaraj, who rebelled to back the TVK alliance.Two other parties – the VCK and the IUML, which had won two seats each, initially turned TVK down. But after days of suspense and negotiations, both eventually came on board and finally Vijay got the numbers for the governor to extend him an invite to form the governmentVijay was sworn in at Nehru Indoor Stadium on May 7, becoming the first non-DMK, non-AIADMK Tamil Nadu chief minister since 1967. The governor gave him time till May 13 to prove his majority.
AIADMK split wide open
And while Vijay and his strategists were busy firming up the numbers, a section of the AIADMK, the party of MGR and Jayalalithaa, openly came out in support of the TVK’s star. A group of about 30 MLAs led by former ministers SP Velumani and C Ve Shanmugam broke ranks with party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and announced their support for the Vijay’s TVK government. Shanmugam, addressing reporters, alleged that Palaniswami wanted to stitch an arrangement with archrival DMK to keep TVK out of power.“He (Palaniswami) wanted to form a government with the support of DMK,” he claimed, adding “the proposal is against the fundamental principles of AIADMK.” Pointing out that the AIADMK was floated to oppose and uproot the DMK, Shanmugam said all party members had opposed Palaniswami’s proposal. The party needs a “new life,” he said, and for that, the “Amma rule” must return. Supporting Vijay, he argued, was the way to get there. The faction elected Velumani as their legislature party leader and submitted a letter of support to the pro-tem Speaker.
AIADMK faction extends support to TVK
This is not the first time that the AIADMK has split. After MGR’s death in 1987, the party was divided into two. After Jayalalithaa’s death in December 2016, it split again, with factions backing O Panneerselvam and VK Sasikala pulling the party in different directions before EPS took command. However, the AIADMK survived all the splits and eventually held together. This time, with just 47 seats and a floor test looming, the story may be different.The AIADMK has hit back at the rebels. On its official X handle, the party called them a “bag of lies” and asked pointedly whether Velumani, Shanmugam and C Vijayabaskar were “pleading for minister posts with TVK.” It then issued a whip directing all 47 MLAs to vote against TVK in Wednesday’s floor test. “Action will be taken against those MLAs who act against the party’s directive,” the party statement read.
AIADMK on X handle
The resignation route
Vijay has the numbers to pass the floor test as of now. However, if the rebel AIADMK MLAs back him, his government will get a big boost.The rebels, who have openly announced their support for Vijay and have even met him, would be wary of the anti-defection law. To evade disqualification, their numbers should be more than 31 – which is two-thirds of the AIADMK’s numerical strength in the assembly. At 30, they are short of this number and may face disqualification for defying the party whip. It’s a different matter though that the disqualification proceedings at times takes months and even years. By then, the government will be settled.
Tamil Nadu CM Vijay called on former minister C Ve Shanmugam and other MLAs in his camp
But if the rebel MLAs resign before Wednesday’s vote, they don’t fall within the ambit of the anti-defection law. The House strength drops, the majority mark falls, and Vijay wins comprehensively without needing any extra vote. This is what had happened in Karnataka in 2019, when Yeddyurappa had stormed back to power courtesy mass resignations.There is a third option also. If the Velumani-Shanmugam camp can win over some more MLAs and show they have support of 32 out of 47, they could claim to be the real AIADMK legislature party and avoid disqualification altogether. This is what Shiv Sena rebel Eknath Shinde did in 2022. Shinde walked out of the Uddhav Thackeray government in Maharashtra with two-thirds of the Shiv Sena legislators, survived the anti-defection proceedings, and eventually won the legal battle over the party name and symbol itself.This has happened in other states too. In Madhya Pradesh in 2020, 22 Congress MLAs loyal to Jyotiraditya Scindia resigned. The Kamal Nath government fell. Shivraj Singh Chouhan returned as chief minister. The resignations were later questioned in court. It did not matter. The government stood.The anti-defection law, introduced in 1985 to bring stability to Indian legislatures, has repeatedly been outmanoeuvred mainly by resignations, mergers, two-thirds rebellions etc. It has rarely stopped a determined majority from forming a government.
What happens Wednesday
Vijay has said nothing publicly about the AIADMK rebellion. He does not need to. But he has met AIADMK rebel leader C Ve Shanmugam’s at the latter’s residence in Chennai indicating that he is willing to engage with them. The rebel MLAs have submitted their letter. The whip has been issued. Wednesday’s floor test will decide the future of AIADMK — will the rebels gather more support before the vote and split the party officially, will they resign, or will they defy the whip and simply not show up? Well, we will have to wait till tomorrow to see if the AIADMK survives this rebellion.AIADMK’s fate notwithstanding, Vijay will be the winner.
