Chennai: Tamil Nadu is bracing for a sharp surge in electricity demand and a potential supply deficit in summer 2027, with two studies projecting a shortfall ranging between 3,610MW to 7,971MW during peak hours amid the possible impact of Super El Niño. The Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation (TNPDCL) has drawn up a plan to bridge the gap through short-term power purchases, alongside proposed medium- and long-term agreements.The state is yet to fully recover from this year’s power deficit despite the onset of the northeast monsoon, following an extended summer. TNPDCL came under fire for signing power purchase agreements at rates of Rs 37 per unit.The two studies, one conducted by TNPDCL’s in-house team and the other by a private agency, have projected a much larger shortage during peak hours in summer 2027. The state’s peak demand is expected to soar to 23,672MW, at least 2,000MW higher than the all-time high recorded so far. “We expect the shortage to be around 3,610 MW during Feb and July and 7,971 MW during April and May,” said an official.According to TNPDCL’s resource adequacy plan, Tamil Nadu will have more than sufficient power during the day, with availability of up to 24,741MW due to solar power generation. However, supply will fall short during peak hours, between 6pm and midnight. In February, peak-hour power availability is projected to be just 16,152MW, while it is expected to be around 19,241MW in July.To bridge the deficit, TNPDCL has decided to purchase between 2,000MW and 3,200MW under short-term agreements. During the peak summer months of April and May, purchases will total around 3,200MW, comprising 2,000MW of round-the-clock power and 1,200MW for peak-demand hours between 6pm and midnight. During June and July, purchases will total around 2,000MW, including 750MW for peak hours.Apart from short-term purchases, TNPDCL also intends to sign long-term power purchase agreements for 1,500MW for up to 15 years and medium-term agreements for another 1,500MW for up to five years. The utility also plans to enter into a power exchange arrangement with other states, under which hydro-rich northeastern states will supply power to Tamil Nadu during summer and buy power from the state when they face shortages.TNPDCL has received approval from the Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission to proceed with signing agreements with private power producers through the Union government’s DEEP portal.“We want to be proactive in addressing the problem next year, so we are floating tenders in advance to discover bids for cheaper rates. Also, we are going for a reverse auction in short-term purchases to make bids more competitive,” an official said.C Selvaraj, a retired engineer from TNEB and consumer activist, pointed out that TNPDCL did not make use of the existing long-term and medium-term power purchase agreements to its fullest. “We already have tied up to supply power to the tune of 2,800 MW under long-term and 2,800MW under short-term agreements. But in September, we have purchased only 50% under medium-term agreements, but purchased high-cost power through short-term agreements. Looks like TNPDCL will shut its own thermal plants and rely heavily on private high-cost power next summer,” he said.
