New Delhi: The season of farm fires is here and 47 cases have already been recorded in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, UP and Madhya Pradesh between Sept 15 and 23.Experts said this stubble burning season could be complex as the Super El Niño is expected to reduce the number of western disturbances that bring rain that washes away pollutants in the air. To add to this, the peak burning period is expected to coincide with Diwali, which is on Nov 8, when winter conditions begin to set in.Gufran Beig, founder of System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) and chair professor at National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), said: “We are facing a Super El Nino, which is unprecedented for this century. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean has already increased over 3 degrees Celsius. It will lead to fewer western disturbances, which usually bring rain to Delhi and wash out pollutants for a temporary period. Hence, there will be more intrusion.”Beig said winter this year is expected to be mild as temperatures are unlikely to dip too much, causing the boundary layer height to remain higher for longer and resulting in less trapping of pollutants. “At the same time, due to a lower number of western disturbances, winds are likely to be slow down, leading to the accumulation of pollutants and stagnation. Besides, Punjab has recorded a rain deficit of over 35% this monsoon, and crop sowing has been delayed. Harvesting is likely to start from late Oct, and stubble burning may be extended beyond the end of Nov. Also, the festive period will be observed in Nov this year, when temperatures start dipping and winds slow down, causing the accumulation of pollutants,” he said.Of the total 47 cases reported between Sept 15 and 23, Punjab recorded 25 farm fires, Uttar Pradesh 19 and Haryana, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh one each. This is according to the satellite data compiled by Indian Agricultural Research Institute.Farm fires are currently low but their daily numbers will rise in Oct and peak in the first 10 days of Nov. Stubble burning usually takes place from Sept 15 to Nov 30.Experts believe that the impact of stubble burning on Delhi’s PM2.5 is likely to be more this year.The contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s PM2.5 was less in 2025 as the share of farm fires in Delhi’s air quality surpassed 10% on just eight days, including over 20% on only one day. It remained below 5% on most days. In contrast, the share of stubble burning was above 20% on 14 days in 2024, according to the data of Decision Support System.Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy, at Centre for Science and Environment, said: “The stubble burning trend will depend on the effectiveness of enforcement and, more importantly, on-ground preparedness for in-situ residue management and ex-situ absorption of crop waste for industrial purposes.”She added that although there is an overall downward trend in crop burning incidents, solutions must be operationalised widely and effectively to nearly eliminate the problem.Punjab reported 5,114 farm fires last year, down from 10,909 in 2024, while Haryana recorded 662 incidents compared with 1,406. Paddy residue burning events in Uttar Pradesh rose from 6,142 in 2024 to 7,290 in 2025. Rajasthan witnessed 2,890 cases last year as against 2,772 in 2024 and Delhi saw a reduction in stubble burning cases from 13 in 2024 to five in 2025.
