Bengaluru: Prolonged drought-like conditions in most of the state have put chief minister DK Shivakumar in a tight political and financial spot, well ahead of the 2028 assembly polls.The govt has announced input assistance of Rs 2,500 for each farmer in areas officially declared drought-hit, covering 45 to 50 lakh farmers at a cost of about Rs 1,250 crore. The harder question is whether it can go beyond this and meet demands for farm loan waivers and full compensation when the state’s finances are already stretched.Shivakumar’s stand is that Karnataka will pass on to farmers whatever it gets from the Centre. He has offered to lead an all-party delegation to Delhi seeking drought aid and loan waivers and has proposed sharing the burden in a 50:50, 60:40 or 70:30 ratio. BJP has declined to join the delegation.That leaves the larger relief package dependent on central support: the govt can fund immediate aid itself, but a waiver on the scale demanded would cost far more than input subsidy.That is where the guarantees come in. The five schemes are estimated to cost Rs 51,286 crore in 2026-27 — about 12% of expenditure excluding debt repayment. PRS Legislative Research notes that CAG had observed that higher allocations for the guarantees pushed up revenue expenditure and revenue deficit, while infrastructure spending fell by Rs 5,229 crore in 2023-24 from the previous year. Outstanding liabilities are estimated at about 25% of GSDP by the end of 2026-27.The guarantees cannot be switched off when drought strikes. The govt has repeatedly ruled out a rollback and is instead reviewing beneficiaries to plug leaks and weed out ineligible ones. But the challenge is sharpened by the scale of the drought crisis. Losses are estimated at around Rs 40,000 crore, and the number of affected taluks keeps rising.Agriculture scientist N Raghavendra said the assistance carries both financial and political heft. “Farmers will judge relief against the much larger losses they have suffered,” he said. “A farmer whose crop has failed loses more than a season’s income. There are loans, interest payments, next crop expenses, livestock costs, and household spending. A Rs 2,500 transfer provides immediate liquidity but does not resolve the debt problem. That explains the continuing demand for a waiver.”The politics stretch to 2028. Farmer leader C Mallesh said drought is unfolding in the second half of the assembly term, when the govt’s record will increasingly be judged by voters.“Congress has spoken publicly about returning to the helm in 2028 and is presenting its performance as a longer-term agenda,” Mallesh said. “Farmers could become an important constituency. The govt will have to show that its welfare architecture is not limited to urban households, women, youth and guarantee beneficiaries, but also protects the agricultural economy in a severe drought.”Added to this, there is also a historical challenge: The same party has never returned to govern in consecutive elections in Karnataka since 1985, when the Janata Party govt was followed by Congress in 1989. Whether Congress breaks the pattern will depend on governance, organisation, economic conditions and voter preferences, with the drought only a part of the record.
