Pune: Oct is becoming unusually hot in the city, with the temperatures pushing towards historical extremes. Shivajinagar recorded a maximum of 35.2°C on Wednesday, a day after the mercury climbed to 35.7°C — the eighth-highest Oct maximum recorded at the station.The heat is unlikely to ease in the near future.India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast maximum temperatures of 36-37°C over the next few days, raising the possibility that the mercury could move closer to some of the highest Oct levels recorded in the city.The latest readings are significant in the context of Pune’s long-term temperature record.Wednesday’s 35.2°C was just 0.3° below the 35.5°C mark that separates Shivajinagar station’s top 10 Oct maximums. Tuesday’s 35.7°C had already crossed that threshold.Pune’s highest Oct temperature on record remains 37.8°C, recorded on Oct 8, 1899. The second-highest is 36.9°C, recorded on Oct 7, 2002, followed by 36.7°C on Oct 6 that year.A reading of 37°C in the coming days would therefore place the current spell among the city’s highest Oct temperatures in the historical record.The current spell also stands out against the backdrop of recent El Nino years.Shivajinagar recorded Oct maximums of 36.9°C in 2002; 34.4°C in 2015; and 34.7°C in 2023 — all El Nino years. At 35.7°C, Tuesday’s maximum had already surpassed the Oct peaks of 2015 and 2023, while remaining 1.2° below the 2002 peak.The heat comes as Pune moves through an unusually dry post-monsoon transition, with the ongoing El Nino conditions also contributing to the prevailing weather pattern.“Day temperatures of 35°C to 36°C have been recorded in Oct in the past. But we can say that it is around 3° to 4° above normal, which puts it in the higher range,” said S D Sanap, an IMD scientist.The forecast of 36-37°C over the next few days is within reach, Sanap said.“Thirty-six degrees Celsius is already within the range when temperatures reach 35.7°C, as temperatures are rounded off to the next degree. There is a possibility of temperatures reaching 37°C as indicated in the forecast, although forecasts carry an uncertainty of around plus or minus 2°,” he said.The rising temperatures are being driven by a combination of factors following the withdrawal of the monsoon.“One reason is the Oct heat. Another is that the monsoon winds are no longer present over the region, as the monsoon has withdrawn. An anticyclonic circulation over northwest India is bringing dry air into the region. We are also getting clear skies during the afternoon, because of which temperatures are rising,” Sanap added.El Nino, too, is adding to the backdrop.“El Nino is also a factor. These conditions are occurring against the backdrop of El Nino, and similar conditions have been observed in the past. During El Nino years, post-monsoon temperatures have generally been higher in the past, and record-breaking temperatures have also been observed. We are seeing similar conditions this year as well,” he said.The heat is not restricted to Shivajinagar but is being felt across Pune.Wednesday’s maximum temperatures reached 35.8°C at Lohegaon, 35.2°C at Chinchwad, 34.4°C at Pashan, 33.6°C at Magarpatta and 33.8°C at NDA.The readings from Lohegaon, however, cannot be placed against a long-term Oct record, as historical extreme temperature data for the station is not available with IMD.
