Pune: Maharashtra is likely to see above-normal daytime temperatures through Nov, while minimum temperatures may remain near or below normal in parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) monthly outlook.While some parts of the state may receive normal to above-normal rainfall, the overall rainfall quantum is likely to remain low, as Nov is generally a dry month for the region.IMD’s maximum temperature outlook for Nov indicates a higher probability of above-normal temperatures across most parts of Maharashtra. The forecast for minimum temperatures, however, presents a mixed picture.“Daytime temperatures in Maharashtra are likely to be above normal. However, minimum temperatures in some parts of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada are expected to be normal to below normal. In the remaining parts of the state, nights may be warmer than normal in Nov,” said SD Sanap, a scientist at IMD Pune.On the rainfall front, IMD director-general Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said some parts of Maharashtra were likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during Nov.Met officials, however, cautioned against interpreting this as an indication of substantial rainfall.“Parts of Maharashtra fall in the normal to above-normal rainfall category in the tercile map for Nov. However, the month generally receives very little rainfall. So, even if the forecast indicates normal to above-normal rainfall, the actual quantity may not be significant,” Mohapatra said.Explaining the broader rainfall outlook, Mohapatra said normal to above-normal rainfall activity was expected over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, the northeastern states, parts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, as well as Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and some parts of Haryana and Gujarat.“There is considerable year-to-year variation in rainfall activity over these areas. So, one has to take the forecast with a pinch of salt. It is an outlook,” Mohapatra said.The temperature outlook points to above-normal maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, barring some areas of northwest India, including Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Uttar Pradesh, where temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal.Similarly, minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal over large parts of the country, except in some parts of central and eastern India. Parts of Maharashtra and Telangana, too, are likely to experience normal to below-normal minimum temperatures.“The El Nino factor can be considered one of the reasons for the above-normal temperature outlook,” Sanap said.Mohapatra said El Nino was likely to peak in Nov before gradually weakening. However, its influence was expected to persist until March next year.The Nov outlook comes against the backdrop of an exceptionally warm Oct across the country. Mohapatra said Oct 2026 recorded the highest average maximum temperature for the month since 1901. The country’s average minimum temperature ranked fifth-highest, while the mean temperature was the third-highest.Central India, which includes Maharashtra, recorded its fourth-highest Oct average maximum temperature and third-highest mean temperature. South Peninsular India recorded its second-highest average maximum and minimum temperatures and its highest mean temperature for Oct.Mohapatra pointed out that rising temperature rankings in recent years were particularly evident in maximum and mean temperatures, while minimum temperatures were not displaying a similar trend.
