NEW DELHI: Is YSRCP supremo YS Jagan Mohan Reddy signalling a drift towards the Congress-led INDIA bloc? Or is he trying to break free from the image of being soft on the BJP?The former Andhra Pradesh chief minister has provided issue-based support to the BJP-led NDA government on several key legislations in Parliament while he was in power in the state. However, he has stayed away from joining any alliance till now. So, when Jagan Reddy recently regretted his “mistake” of supporting the 2023 NDA legislation for selecting the Chief Election Commissioner, it fuelled speculation about his future political moves.“We regret supporting the process under which the ruling party nominates the Chief Election Commissioner at the Centre. Neither the CEC nor the SEC should be appointed by the ruling party. The selection committee should comprise the Prime Minister, the leader of the opposition and the Chief Justice of India (CJI), with all three exercising their voting rights,” the YSRCP chief said recently, calling the current selection system “flawed.“The timing and context of Jagan’s remarks are significant. So, is he rethinking his “solo” politics? And if yes, will the Congress be ready to tango with him in Andhra Pradesh? After all, alliances with regional parties have been the Congress’s biggest Achilles heel across states.
Jagan’s support for NDA’s key Bills
Jagan Mohan Reddy’s MPs backed the Modi government several times between 2019 and 2024, both in Lok Sabha and in Rajya Sabha, on many important legislations. However, when it came to stitching an alliance for the 2024 elections, the BJP ignored Jagan’s help and joined hands with his arch-rival Chandrababu Naidu. Together, TDP and BJP swept the polls in Andhra Pradesh, winning 164 out of 175 seats in the assembly and 21 out of 25 seats in Lok Sabha. The YSRCP was reduced to 11 seats in the assembly and 4 in Lok Sabha.Despite being spurned by the BJP and his party’s shock defeat, Jagan Mohan Reddy remained confident about his BJP ties. After all, he still had 15 MPs (4 in Lok Sabha and 11 in Rajya Sabha) to provide the much-needed support to the BJP’s minority government at the Centre. Jagan even announced that his MPs would extend issue-based support to the NDA government in matters concerning national and state interest.But with the BJP heavily dependent on Chandrababu Naidu’s support for survival of its government at the Centre, there was little room for the saffron party to accommodate Jagan Reddy. Nearly two and a half years down the line, Reddy seems to have accepted this harsh reality and is perhaps gearing up to chart a new path for the next political challenge in 2029.
Jagan vs Congress
However, for any successful alliance with the INDIA bloc – the YSRCP and the Congress will have to be on the same page. And that perhaps would be the biggest challenge for Jagan Mohan Reddy.Jagan Mohan Reddy had a bitter parting from the Congress in 2010, a year after the death of his father YS Rajasekhara Reddy. YSR Reddy was in his second term as the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh when he died in a helicopter crash on September 2, 2009. Jagan’s supporters, who were many in number, lobbied hard with the Congress high command for the top post, but Sonia Gandhi did not budge and made K Rosaiah the chief minister. The Congress leadership did not approve of Jagan’s Odarpu Yatra, which was part of his announced plan to meet the families of many people who had sacrificed their lives after his father’s death.That set the stage for his eventual exit from the Congress, which he announced on November 29, 2010 in an open letter to Sonia Gandhi carefully written to ensure there was enough public sympathy for his second phase of political career.In the 2014 assembly elections, the YSRCP made an impressive debut and won 67 out of the 175 seats with a vote share of 44.46%, while the Congress could manage only a vote share of 2.8%. The Congress decision to bifurcate the state and create Telangana played a huge role in the party’s declining political fortunes in the state.On November 6, 2017, Jagan embarked on the Praja Sankalpa Yatra and covered 3,648 km in 341 days, crossing 134 assembly constituencies. The Yatra, from YSR Ghat at Idupulapaya to the northeastern tip of Ichchapuram, powered Jagan Mohan Reddy to a historic mandate of 151 seats in the 175-member assembly in the 2019 elections. The Congress’s vote share was reduced to less than 1%.The Congress, since then, has been making efforts to reclaim its lost political space in the state. It roped in Jagan Reddy’s sister Y S Sharmila as part of the party’s revival plan. Sharmila, who started her political career with her brother Jagan Mohan Reddy eventually drifted towards the Congress and was appointed president of Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee in January 2024.However, both Jagan Mohan Reddy and his sister Y S Sharmila failed to make an impact in the 2024 elections. The 2024 elections saw a dramatic collapse of Jagan’s electoral fortunes, and his party was reduced to only 11 seats. The Congress once again failed to make its presence felt.
The 2029 challenge
And that brings us to the 2029 elections – a do-or-die challenge for both Jagan Mohan Reddy and the Congress. Jagan’s remark on backing the CEC appointment Bill is his first open “regret” for backing the BJP.But does this “open regret” mean an olive branch for the Congress?Former Congress leader and senior political commentator Sanjay Jha strongly feels that Jagan and Congress should come together, though he admits that this may not be easy.“Politics is the art of the possible and I’m sure Jaganmohan Reddy is aware that Chandrababu Naidu has been an extremely close alliance partner of the Modi government. While the Congress doesn’t have a base in Andhra like it used to have once upon a time. The support base of Jaganmohan Reddy is basically the Congress vote which moved away from the traditional Congress to the Congress that Jaganmohan Reddy, branded as the Congress of his father. So, if the merger were to happen, it would, frankly speaking, give them a huge advantage because then both the Central Congress and the Jaganmohan Congress could be on the same page,” Sanjay Jha says.However, he accepts that merger of the two parties could be a difficult process while stitching an alliance may be easier. “Once a political party becomes independent and has power, they don’t like to give it up in a hurry. The TMC or the NCP are good examples. In which case it could be an alliance,” Sanjay Jha adds.The third option, according to Sanjay Jha, is for the Congress to resurrect itself on its own strongly in Andhra by capturing both the anti-incumbent votes against Chandrababu Naidu and winning back the loyalist voters of the Congress who had moved over to Jaganmohan Reddy.
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This is easier said than done. The Congress has a poor track record when it comes to winning back states it has lost. We have seen several states across the country where the Congress has lost its government and eventually its support base but does little to reclaim it.In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu and the BJP are going all out to consolidate their position. Naidu’s call for greater cooperation and coordination among southern states at a recent conference is perhaps an effort to keep his importance and relevance intact. We saw DMK’s MK Stalin make similar moves before he lost power to Vijay’s TVK in the last assembly elections.Jagan Mohan Reddy and the Congress face an uphill electoral battle in 2029. It will be interesting to see if they can agree to an alliance to take on Chandrababu Naidu and the BJP.
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