Pune: The India Meteorological Department’s latest extended range forecast indicated below-normal rainfall over most regions of Maharashtra at least till July 30 despite the return of rainfall in parts of the state following formation of a well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal,The extended range forecast (ERF), released on Thursday, stated that rainfall during July 16-23 was likely to be below normal over most parts of the country, including large parts of Maharashtra, except over parts of east and northeast India where it is likely to be normal to above normal. For the subsequent week (July 23-30), rainfall is expected to be near normal to above normal over parts of east and central India. Rainfall will, however, remain below normal over most other regions, including parts of Maharashtra, during the period.The forecast anomaly maps suggested that except for parts of the Konkan coast, much of Maharashtra was likely to continue witnessing below-normal rainfall over both forecast weeks. Vidarbha, Marathwada and large parts of Madhya Maharashtra do not show any significant positive rainfall anomalies, indicating the absence of a widespread monsoon revival at least till month end.India Meteorological Department (IMD) scientist S D Sanap said a well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha-West Bengal coast was expected to bring only limited benefits to Maharashtra as it was likely to move north-northwestwards across Odisha and West Bengal over the next two days.“Over the next one to two days, Maharashtra can receive isolated rainfall. Vidarbha is likely to witness thunderstorms, lightning and light to moderate rainfall at some places over the next four to five days, while Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada may receive isolated light to moderate showers. It will not be widespread rainfall,” Sanap said.“Konkan and Goa could witness isolated heavy rainfall on Friday, but no ‘orange’ or ‘red’ alerts have been issued for any part of Maharashtra over the next four to five days,” he said.Referring to the extended forecast, Sanap said, “The prediction system indicates below-normal rainfall over Maharashtra till July 23. After that, there could be some revival, but it is still not very clear. We do not see strong positive rainfall anomalies over the state.”Explaining why the current weather system is unlikely to trigger a significant revival over Maharashtra, Sanap said the Bay of Bengal low-pressure area was expected to track towards West Bengal rather than central India. “We also do not have an east-west shear zone along Maharashtra’s latitude. Besides, there is no significant system such as an offshore trough along the west coast. Because of these factors, conditions are not favourable for very heavy rainfall or a strong monsoon phase over the state.”The forecast indicates that while isolated light to moderate rainfall may continue over parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra over the coming days, widespread monsoon activity is likely to remain subdued across most of the state through the remainder of July.
