Pune: The southwest monsoon is expected to advance further into Maharashtra over the next few days, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting progress over additional parts of the state.However, weather experts cautioned that its progress into the state’s interior may be slow and “sluggish” due to unfavourable atmospheric conditions.The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that the monsoon onset line reached parts of south Konkan on Saturday. While conditions remain favourable for advancement over additional parts of the state within the next 48 to 72 hours, the pace of the inland spread remains uncertain.G.P. Sharma, president, Skymet Weather, said the current advance is primarily driven by the Arabian Sea branch, which is fuelling rainfall along the west coast.“The progress at present is largely confined to the coastline. Monsoon activity is expected to continue along the coast, with good rainfall likely over the Konkan region, including North Konkan, in the coming days,” Sharma said. However, he warned that interior Maharashtra remains a “grey area.”“The advance over the interior parts of the state is likely to be sluggish. The Bay of Bengal branch, which typically helps the monsoon penetrate deeper inland, is currently inactive,” he explained.Independent weather expert Abhijit Modak predicted widespread pre-monsoon thunderstorms across Western Maharashtra over the next three days—specifically between Pune and Kolhapur and from Raigad to Sindhudurg. However, he warned of a potential slowdown thereafter.Modak noted that an intrusion of relatively drier air from the northwest Arabian Sea and adjoining desert regions could temporarily weaken the monsoon flow. “Unless the westerly flow deepens and satisfies mandatory onset parameters, it may be premature to declare the monsoon’s arrival over the Mumbai-Pune region before June 11,” he said.This sentiment was echoed by Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist at the University of Reading, the UK. Deoras warned that the monsoon’s progression could even halt after June 8.“A significant amount of dry air is expected to enter India from the northwest. Such dry intrusions are known to obstruct monsoon progression by drying out the atmosphere and creating more stable—and thus less rainy—weather conditions,” Deoras said, adding that parts of Maharashtra are likely to be caught in this dry-air path.Despite differing assessments on the exact timing, meteorologists agree that the situation remains highly dynamic. Greater clarity on when the monsoon will officially cover Mumbai, Pune, and the rest of Maharashtra is expected over the coming days as these competing weather systems evolve.
