MUMBAI: Maharashtra’s deficient monsoon, coupled with a developing potentially strong El Niño, has raised concerns over water security, rabi crop stress and food prices. Meteorologists have warned that a warmer-than-normal winter could bring summer-like conditions as early as February 2027.The state received 804.4mm of rainfall during the June-September monsoon, against the normal of 994.5mm, a shortfall of about 19%. Nineteen of its 36 districts recorded deficient rainfall. Marathwada was the worst-hit subdivision, with a 39% deficit, followed by Vidarbha at 27%. The Konkan region fared relatively better, with only one of its seven districts recording deficient rainfall.The impact could extend into the next crop cycle, as depleted soil moisture, lower groundwater recharge and stressed reservoirs increase irrigation requirements. For Mumbai and the metropolitan region, water availability will depend on reservoir storage, subsequent inflows and demand.A Climate Trends analysis dated October 16 says Maharashtra is among five states, along with Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, that have declared drought. Its claim that drought affects 75% of Maharashtra needs to be verified against the relevant government notification.Reservoirs, crops under pressureCentral Water Commission data cited in the report show that live storage in 178 monitored reservoirs stood at 78.71% of the corresponding period last year and 87.08% of normal as of October 8. The western region’s storage stood at 82.42% of its normal level.Nationally, rice acreage as of October 5 was down by 15.56 lakh hectares compared with the corresponding period in 2025-26, including a decline of 1.15 lakh hectares in Maharashtra. Sugarcane and cotton acreage also fell, while the area under pulses and oilseeds increased, potentially reflecting a shift towards less water-intensive crops. However, changes in acreage do not necessarily indicate final production losses.Dr G V Ramanjaneyulu, executive director of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, said prolonged dry spells reduce soil moisture and groundwater recharge, increasing dependence on irrigation. He advocated the cultivation of short-duration pulses, oilseeds and millets, along with better soil management.Rainfall deficits across the countryIndia’s monsoon ended with a 13% rainfall deficit, its weakest performance in a decade, according to the analysis. East and Northeast India received 1,017.1mm of rainfall against the normal of 1,367.3mm, a shortfall of 25.6% and the region’s lowest monsoon total since 1901. The South Peninsula recorded 542mm against the normal of 716mm, its fourth-lowest monsoon total since 1901.Bihar recorded deficient rainfall in 33 of its 38 districts, Assam in 22 of 35, Arunachal Pradesh in 12 of 16, and Meghalaya in 10 of 11. Karnataka recorded a statewide deficit of 30%, Kerala 28%, Andhra Pradesh 25% and Tamil Nadu 20%. Ramanagara in Karnataka recorded a 91% shortfall, while Thoothukudi in Tamil Nadu recorded a deficit of 64%. Central and northwest India received near-normal rainfall.Warmer winter, tougher rabi seasonThe report cites an 83% probability of El Niño becoming the strongest event since 1950 during October-December, with conditions highly likely to persist until February 2027. The India Meteorological Department forecast cited in the analysis points to below-normal winter rainfall across most of India and above-average temperatures. However, these remain projections rather than certainties.The reported foodgrain production target for 2026-27 is 373.93 million tonnes, 2.63 million tonnes below the estimated output for 2025-26. Dr K J Ramesh, former director-general of the India Meteorological Department, warned that low groundwater levels and reduced soil moisture could affect rabi and summer crops. Climate scientist Dr Roxy Mathew Koll said global warming raises background temperatures and can intensify the impacts of El Niño.Aarti Khosla, director of Climate Trends, called for stronger early-warning systems, heat-action plans and public-health preparedness.For Maharashtra, the priorities are to safeguard drinking-water supplies, monitor reservoir levels, support farmers in selecting crops suited to available soil moisture and prepare for heat. The end of the monsoon may mark the beginning, rather than the end, of a prolonged period of climate stress.
