Pune: Large parts of Maharashtra are likely to see below-normal rainfall and temperatures may remain above normal, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its Sept outlook.IMD on Monday released the rainfall probability map which indicated that sizeable parts of Maharashtra were in the below-normal rainfall category. Some pockets in eastern parts of the state may receive normal or above-normal rains.The temperature outlook was markedly warmer. The maximum and minimum temperatures forecast placed most of Maharashtra in the above-normal category. Some pockets showed normal or lower probabilities, but the broad signal was a month warmer than normal.IMD scientist SD Sanap said combination of rainfall and temperature outlook for Sept was similar to Aug, suggesting that relatively drier and warmer conditions could continue. Moreover, large-scale atmospheric factors were not favouring rainfall higher than normal. “El Niño is getting strengthened,” he said, adding that its influence could favour above-normal rainfall in the eastern areas of India and parts of east Madhya Pradesh.Sanap said, “The Madden-Julian Oscillation, equatorial waves and other largescale atmospheric conditions were not favourable for rainfall higher than normal in Sept for Maharashtra and much of India.”However, below-normal rainfall probabilities did not mean that the region would remain completely dry. Rainfall activity would continue, but may remain lower than the climatological average, he said.Sanap said rainfall distribution could become more variable as the monsoon entered its withdrawal phase. “Normally, the monsoon begins withdrawing from parts of northwest India around Sept-mid, though the actual timing varies every year. The transition may lead to regional differences in rainfall activity, including episodes associated with thunderstorms,” he added.
