Pune: Monsoon is unlikely to revive in the country at least till the first few days of Sept, latest India Meteorological Department forecast stated on Friday.The IMD’s extended-range forecast indicates below-normal rainfall for both the Aug 20-26 and Aug 27-Sept 2 periods. The forecast suggested that Maharashtra, too, is unlikely to see a significant and sustained revival in rainfall activity during the period.The IMD’s rainfall anomaly maps showed negative anomalies over parts of the state in both weeks. For Aug 20-26, the IMD forecast showed below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole. The outlook for Aug 27-Sept 2 is similar, with the country again likely to receive below-normal rainfall overall and parts of Maharashtra showing negative rainfall anomalies.IMD scientist S D Sanap said, “During the first week, the forecast is showing higher-than-normal rainfall over central India, particularly Madhya Pradesh and adjoining regions. In the following week, the focus shifts to the eastern Indian region, including West Bengal, Jharkhand, Odisha and adjoining north Chhattisgarh. The rest of the country, particularly the Southern Peninsula and Maharashtra, is likely to have below-normal rainfall activity during these two weeks.”He added, “For the country as a whole, the rainfall is likely to be below normal in the coming two weeks. But when we look region-wise, there are differences. Most parts of India and Maharashtra can be expected to remain in the below-normal category.”There is already a system over eastern Madhya Pradesh and adjoining regions. “It was a well-marked low-pressure area two days ago and has now weakened into a low-pressure area. It is bringing some rainfall there. The eastern Indian region has seen back-to-back systems forming over the head Bay, which is why West Bengal, adjoining Jharkhand and Odisha are receiving more rainfall. These systems are moving along that belt and are not moving into our latitudes. As a result, their impact is not being seen over Maharashtra.”The eastern end of the monsoon trough is currently near its normal position, while the western end is north of its normal position. “This is contributing to lower rainfall over parts of northwest India and the southern regions, while the eastern region is getting more rainfall because of the successive systems,” Sanap said.“El Niño is also further strengthening, while the MJO is not favourable at present. These are among the factors contributing to most parts of India, except the eastern region, being in the below-normal rainfall category. We have the week three and week four forecast as well, and that is also showing below-normal rainfall, in fact more prominently. However, the accuracy of forecasts decreases as the lead time increases. This should be considered with that disclaimer,” he said.MJO (Madden Julian oscillation) is an eastward propagating convective system that passes over the Indian and Pacific oceans with a periodicity of 30-60 days and influences most of the tropical weather systems.A Skymet official said the current weather systems over central India were unlikely to bring significant rainfall to Maharashtra. “There is a low-pressure area over northeast Madhya Pradesh and southeast Uttar Pradesh. The system is not only at a safe distance from Vidarbha and Marathwada, but it is also weakening and likely to get diffused shortly. Another system, likely to come up over the Bay, is not showing any signs of keeping proximity with the state,” the official said.“Even the coastline of the Konkan region, including Mumbai, will not have adequate rainfall during the remaining days of Aug,” the official added.
