Pune: After an exceptionally wet spell across large parts of Maharashtra and central India, rainfall activity is set to reduce over the coming four to five days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Wednesday.The weather agency, however, refrained from describing the expected lull as a “break monsoon” phase, saying the meteorological criteria for declaring one have not yet been met.IMD scientist SD Sanap said there was currently no weather system likely to trigger widespread rainfall over central India or Maharashtra, and numerical weather models were also not indicating the formation of any immediate system. He said, “We can say there will be a reduction in rainfall at this moment.”Sanap explained that IMD declares a break monsoon only after specific conditions are observed over the monsoon core zone — the country’s principal rain-bearing belt. “A break situation is identified only when the monsoon core zone remains largely rain-free continuously for several days and the standardized rainfall anomaly falls below the prescribed threshold. Until those conditions are realised, it is premature to say a break has set in,” he said.Some parts of the monsoon core zone, including areas of Madhya Pradesh, were still expected to receive rainfall over the next few days, making it difficult to conclude that break conditions would develop. While avoiding the term “break monsoon”, the IMD expects a marked decline in rainfall across most parts of the country, including Maharashtra, Sanap said.“There are still clouds over parts of the monsoon core zone, and rainfall is possible in some regions. The rainfall anomaly may not fall below the required threshold. We need to monitor the situation before calling it a break spell,” he said.“Rainfall over Maharashtra will reduce during the next two to three days and continue decreasing. Interior parts of the state have already seen rainfall activity reduce. Rainfall is no longer widespread there and whatever rain is occurring is mainly confined to the Ghats and coastal areas, while interior regions are receiving only light to moderate showers,” Sanap said.The subdued pattern is already evident in Pune, where most rain-gauge stations are reporting less than 10mm rainfall. Shivajinagar, for instance, recorded only 0.7mm on Tuesday, an amount considered meteorologically insignificant.According to the IMD, the current pattern is likely to persist for the next four to five days, or even up to a week. Forecasts will, however, be updated as atmospheric conditions evolve, said IMD.“We are not expecting any system immediately. But such situations can change rapidly. We will continue monitoring the models and accordingly update the forecast,” Sanap said.Private forecaster Skymet Weather, however, said global weather models were indicating conditions that resemble a weak or break-monsoon pattern.Skymet president GP Sharma said guidance from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC) suggested that the core monsoon rainfall belt over central and western India, including the Western Ghats, could weaken and shift northwards towards the Himalayan foothills, extending across parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the northeast.“Such a pattern is typically associated with weak or break-monsoon conditions,” Sharma said.He also flagged the strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean as a concern for the latter half of monsoon, saying global climate models suggested its influence could become more pronounced and suppress rainfall over India’s core monsoon-dependent regions, making any seasonal recovery more difficult.
